Pinned

Don’t Predict the Future. Anchor to Human Nature

I read an interview Jezz Bezos gave in which he shared how he thinks about the future. Here’s the section that stuck with me:

I very frequently get the question “What’s going to change in the next 10 years?” And that is a very interesting question; it’s a very common one. I almost never get the question “What’s not going to change in the next 10 years?” And I submit to you that that second question is actually the more important of the two. Because you can build a business strategy around the things that are stable in time. As you pointed out, in our retail business, we know that customers want low prices, and I know that’s going to be true 10 years from now. They want fast delivery; they want vast selection. It’s impossible to imagine a future 10 years from now where a customer comes up and says, “Jeff, I love Amazon; I just wish the prices were a little higher,” or “I love Amazon; I just wish you’d deliver a little more slowly.” Impossible. And so the effort we put into those things, spinning those things up, we know the energy we put into it today will still be paying off dividends for our customers 10 years from now. When you have something that you know is true, even over the long term, you can afford to put a lot of energy into it.

The world is changing faster than ever, given AI, and predicting what it will look like in the future is becoming increasingly difficult. But I like Bezos’s point: focus on what won’t change. I interpret that as aspects of human behavior and psychology that will remain true regardless of how the world around us changes. Anchor your strategy on these human traits and you’re likely to build something that customers value for many years to come.

If you want to see a short part of this section of Bezos’s interview, you can watch it here.

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