This weekend, I’ve listened to friends discuss the macro environment. One of my big takeaways is that there’s an aversion to risk right now. Everyone is focused on the downside and avoiding losses. This happened fast. Eight months or so ago we were at all-time highs in public markets. Many were leaning into risk as valuations continued to rise. They were focused on the upside.
It's fascinating to watch risk tolerance change so quickly. For many, it took years to warm up to embracing risk and upside. But it was only a matter of months before the focus shifted to risk avoidance.
I can’t predict what’s going to happen with the macro market, but I’ll be watching closely. I’m curious to see when people will begin to lean into risk again. I suspect that those who take a contrarian position and embrace risk before the masses will set themselves up for outsize returns.