As a founder, I made tons of mistakes. (I often refer to this as stepping on landmines.) Recently I shared one of my more painful stories with a friend. He asked a few questions about why my decision proved incorrect, which I answered. He felt the flaws in my decision should have been apparent from the start and couldn’t understand why I’d made that decision.

The old saying that hindsight is 20/20 is true. Things are often crystal clear when you look backward. You usually have the benefit of complete information. Being in the middle of a situation is very different: you have imperfect information and, often, time constraints.

I explained to my friend what I had perceived the situation to be as it was unfolding versus what I later learned had actually happened. He then understood.

Making decisions with imperfect information is hard, and I’ve gotten it wrong lots of times. I try to make the best decision I can with the information I have. When I finally have the luxury of hindsight, I try not to focus on the outcome. Instead, I aim to learn. In my experience, regardless of the outcome, there’s always something to be learned when you can see everything more clearly.

Hindsight shouldn’t be used to second-guess or critique past decisions. Founders should be careful not to fall into this mental trap. It’s better used as a tool to help people understand what worked and didn't work so they can improve future decisions.

This weekend I had some great conversations with groups of people. Lots of catch-up chat, but people were also talking about shopping. A few things jumped out at me:

• Amazon – For years, I’ve heard people in social settings talk about how they find everything they need on Amazon. But this weekend, no one mentioned shopping at Amazon. Amazon is still a major online retailer and I’m sure many of these people still shop there regularly, but what they wanted to talk about was smaller merchants they’d found online.
• Specific items – People mentioned spending time researching and looking for specific items.
• Patience – When they found exactly what they were looking for, they were patient. The specific item was more important than finding something that could be delivered in a day or two.
• Wardrobe – Working from home has changed how people dress and how they think about their wardrobe. Many don’t think they’ll go back to having a work wardrobe and a nonwork wardrobe.

My “study” has a super-small sample size and isn’t scientific at all, but it got me thinking. Delivery speed and low cost have dominated how consumers shop for a long time, but this may be starting to change. So might how we outfit ourselves. Companies set dress codes and people adhered to those policies, which informed how and where they bought clothes. Now, people are setting their own individual dress codes and focusing on what matters to them.

I think we’re starting to see (or maybe I’m just noticing) a shift in the way consumers shop and why they shop. I’ll be watching this more closely. If this is a trend that continues, it could have a major impact on e-commerce and retail.

Happy July 4th!

I hope everyone had a safe and healthy holiday!

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One of the things I enjoy most about holidays is that many people are off work at the same time and have a mindset of fellowship and celebration. As a young founder, I didn’t appreciate the significance of holidays and often spent the time catching up on work instead of being present. As I matured, I learned to appreciate holidays and spend them with people who matter to me.

I hope everyone who’s fortunate enough to have time off is having a great holiday weekend!

Today marks the end of my sixty-sixth week of working from home (mostly). Here are my takeaways from week sixty-six:

• Holiday – The Fourth of July is this weekend, and many people are preparing to take time off to celebrate. I enjoy holidays and can’t wait to celebrate this one.
• 2nd half – 2021 is halfway over. A lot changed in the last six months, and the time flew by. I’m looking forward to thinking about how the rest of 2021 is unfolding.  
• Disrupting routines – This week has been a major change to my routine. I’ve enjoyed it. It forced me to figure out how to accomplish what’s important to me in different ways.

Week sixty-six was a light one. I’m looking forward to the holiday weekend.

Today marks the start of the second half of 2021. I didn’t realize that 2021 is halfway over until a friend brought it to my attention today. It caught me off guard and got my wheels turning a bit. I reflected on how different from the beginning of the year—and a year ago—things are today.

I figured things would be different this year, but I didn’t anticipate this pace of change. If someone had told me in January that airlines would be canceling summer flights because they can’t find enough staff to meet the demand, I’m not sure I would have believed it. This is the same industry that, with empty flights, significantly cut capacity and received government assistance last year. But here we are today, and that’s exactly what’s happening.

My big takeaway today is that a lot can happen in a short time, and 2021 is a testament to that. I’m looking forward to what’s in store the second half of the year!

Yesterday I predicted that we’ll see a record number of e-commerce businesses sold this year. I shared why I think the timing is opportune for many founders to sell. A friend pointed out that it takes two sides to complete a transaction and my post didn’t address the buy side. He’s right.

I believe significantly more buyers will be looking to acquire e-commerce businesses doing less than $10 million in annual revenue. Here are my reasons:

• The pandemic accelerated the shift to e-ecommerce, and this trend will continue. Buyers who want to participate in this trend but don’t want to spend time catching up and building something from scratch will be interested in buying a business.
• We’re in a low-interest-rate environment. Cash is earning nearly nothing, as are savings accounts and other risk-free investments, so people are looking for other investments to earn returns on their money.
• Many other asset classes have appreciated significantly in the last year and a half. We’re at peak prices historically for many asset classes, and some investors aren’t sure how much upside appreciation is left. Multiples on businesses have increased as well, but a small business in a large market that’s growing quickly has the potential to appreciate significantly.
• Finally, sophisticated investors are raising large sums of money to buy these businesses.

E-commerce businesses have historically been viewed as less sexy than other types of businesses and have received low multiples. I think that will change this year!

Over the last year, I’ve chatted with friends who are seasoned e-commerce entrepreneurs. They saw their businesses explode. People were at home more than usual and ordered online instead of going to physical stores, so that makes sense. I’ve heard stories and read articles about e-commerce businesses having their best year ever.

I predict that this year we’ll see a record number of e-commerce businesses sold—specifically, those doing less than $10 million in annual revenue. I believe this for a lot of reasons, a big one being timing. Founders who’ve spent years building these businesses and recently have thought about exiting have a great opportunity. Businesses of this size are usually valued based on trailing-twelve-months financials. This means the valuation is largely based on how the business performed during the last twelve months—which have been record setting for a lot of these businesses. Many sellers may see this as the perfect time to cash in on their hard work.

I look forward to paying closer attention to the private market for these businesses and hope the founders who were tenacious and built great businesses are rewarded handsomely this year.

Before the pandemic, I regularly did a variety of physical fitness activities. During the past year and a half, I wasn’t comfortable doing them, so I stopped. A few months ago, I decided I wanted to work toward a new health and fitness routine that focused on outside activities. I set some goals for myself and committed to them. I started tracking my progress, and I shared my goals with others who could hold me accountable.

Today I reviewed some of the data, looking back at the progress I’ve made to date instead of ahead to the day my goals have been achieved. I celebrated some of the little wins I’ve had, which reenergized me.

Setting goals is key to a company being successful. It helps with alignment, focus, and a variety of other things. Working to achieve them is a journey that has its ups and downs. Along the way, it’s important for teams to take time to celebrate the progress they’ve made, even if they haven’t achieved their goals yet. Celebrating those mini wins along the way can help teams stay motivated and give them confidence that they can make it to the finish line.

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The last year and a half thrust the world into experimenting. It limited interactions and separated people from family and friends. For many, the separation crystalized the importance of relationships and in-person interactions. Companies were forced to embrace remote work to safely continue operations, and many workers opted to work remotely near the family and friends they missed—some for weeks or months at a time. The flexibility to do so added immense value to their personal lives. This kind of flexibility isn’t something that many workers have experienced before, and I don’t think they’ll want to give it up.

I anticipate that many people will leave full-time work as employees to become entrepreneurs and solopreneurs over the next eighteen months. The desire for flexibility and a better quality of life will drive many of these transitions. This group will create the next wave of lifestyle businesses.

Entrepreneurs will have lots of opportunities to help these lifestyle businesses succeed. Their founders will make time a top priority and will pay for products and services that save them time. Many of their businesses will be dispersed, so they’ll pay to be part of communities (physically or digitally) of like-minded people.

I’m excited and looking forward to watching this explosion in lifestyle businesses. The ripple effects from it could be big and reshape things in ways we never would’ve imagined.