A few days ago, I shared that Anthropic published their S-1, which indicates they’re aiming to start trading on the stock exchange in a few weeks. I have a friend whose firm is invested in the company, so I asked his opinion on the pending IPO.

My friend thinks the IPO will happen, but he isn’t sure how successful it will be. His concern is that the company doesn’t have a moat. New models are being released every week (it feels like), and the cost of switching among Anthropic, ChatGPT, and others is low. So, although Anthropic is winning now, the predictability of future revenue is a concern, especially given the trillion-dollar-plus valuation they’re aiming for. He went on to add that he was a heavy user of Claude earlier this year but has been using OpenAI models for the last few months, even though he’s invested in Anthropic.

I wasn’t expecting that take. I thought he’d be excited about the upside of the stock. This is only one person’s opinion, and I have no idea if it represents the opinions of other existing and potential investors. But it’s an interesting perspective to consider, nonetheless.