I’ve read two books by Michael J. Mauboussin, an investor and a professor at Columbia University. I’ve enjoyed learning and trying his frameworks, especially the expectations investing framework. Another concept he wrote about was the investment premortem, an analysis you do before you invest when you’re objective and your mind isn’t anchored (as it will be after you’ve already invested).

To create this document, you fast-forward a year or so and pretend your investment has failed. You then list all the possible ways the investment ended up in that worst-case scenario. Most people naturally focus on what could go right and their own belief that an investment will work. The goal of the premortem is to get you to consider negative alternative outcomes and ways to mitigate them.

This approach caught my eye, and I want to try it. Thinking in terms of scenarios and the probabilities of those scenarios occurring is something I’ve noticed successful entrepreneurs and investors doing. I’ve started doing more of it, but I want to improve. This premortem idea seems like a great way to force myself to crystallize my thoughts about scenarios that are the opposite of what I hope happens. And it’ll likely help me have more confidence in assigning probability weights to the bad outcomes that I don’t expect.