Predictions for 2024 from a Seasoned VC

Fred Wilson shared his 2024 predictions yesterday. Wilson is a well-known VC and general partner at Union Square Ventures. Here are a few of his points that I took note of:

  • A soft landing is likely given decreasing inflation and interest rate hikes being less likely.
  • There’s more innovation in today’s environment than any other time in his forty-year career.
  • This year will be the coming-out party for “the new energy stack.”
  • The business of venture capital will need to find its new norm. We’re a couple of years into a transition that will take until 2025, at least, to play out.
  • Capital markets will likely be robust in 2024.

Wilson is a seasoned investor who’s been through a few cycles and achieved outsize returns. Given his track record, I enjoy reading how he’s thinking about things. His predictions may or may not come to fruition, but they’re interesting perspectives to consider.

I think public markets will set the tone for the year. If public markets are flat or continue to march higher in Q1 2024, we’ll likely see most of Wilson’s predictions become reality. If public markets start to decline in Q1, his predictions are less likely to transpire.