A framework for thinking probabilistically in uncertain situations, written by a former professional poker player who believes everyone can “think in bets” to make better decisions.

A framework book on how to assess the influence of skill and luck in decision-making. It introduces the skill–luck continuum—a spectrum showing how much outcomes depend on each. It explains how sample size and reversion to the mean differ across luck- and skill-driven activities, and how to build skill differently depending on where your activity falls on that continuum. It also highlights why rationality quotient (RQ) matters more than intelligence quotient (IQ) in making consistently good decisions.