A framework for thinking probabilistically in uncertain situations, written by a former professional poker player who believes everyone can “think in bets” to make better decisions.

A framework book on how to assess the influence of skill and luck in decision-making. It introduces the skill–luck continuum—a spectrum showing how much outcomes depend on each. It explains how sample size and reversion to the mean differ across luck- and skill-driven activities, and how to build skill differently depending on where your activity falls on that continuum. It also highlights why rationality quotient (RQ) matters more than intelligence quotient (IQ) in making consistently good decisions.

A framework book by Richards J. Heuer Jr., a 45-year veteran of the CIA, on how to make sense of complex situations using a structured intelligence analysis methodology. The book explains how analysts think, why they make mistakes, and how they can improve their judgment in high-stakes, uncertain environments. Heuer details the mental shortcuts, assumptions, and cognitive limitations that can lead to flawed analysis, and he emphasizes the importance of trying to disprove hypotheses rather than confirm them. He introduces Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH), an eight-step framework grounded in cognitive psychology, decision analysis, and the scientific method. ACH forces analysts to identify all plausible hypotheses and test each against the available evidence, allowing the hypotheses that have not been disproved by the available evidence to survive instead of evaluating one favored explanation in isolation.