A framework for improving decision-making in complex adaptive systems like business and investing. Mauboussin argues that success in environments defined by complexity and uncertainty requires moving beyond first-level thinking. He explains how recognizing biases, challenging mental models, applying the “outside view,” and distinguishing skill from luck can strengthen judgment. By using structured tools—such as checklists, decision journals, and premortems—and focusing on the quality of the decision process, leaders can reduce costly errors and make more consistently sound decisions.

A framework for thinking probabilistically in uncertain situations, written by a former professional poker player who believes everyone can “think in bets” to make better decisions.

A framework book composed of essays that teach better decision-making by thinking broadly and drawing insights from multiple disciplines—psychology, biology, and complexity science. Mauboussin emphasizes the importance of probabilistic thinking over relying on historical rules, helping readers navigate uncertainty and complexity more effectively. The book is organized into four main sections: Investment Philosophy, Psychology of Investing, Innovation & Competitive Strategy, and Science & Complexity Theory.