A framework book on how to assess the influence of skill and luck in decision-making. It introduces the skill–luck continuum—a spectrum showing how much outcomes depend on each. It explains how sample size and reversion to the mean differ across luck- and skill-driven activities, and how to build skill differently depending on where your activity falls on that continuum. It also highlights why rationality quotient (RQ) matters more than intelligence quotient (IQ) in making consistently good decisions.

A framework for improving decision-making in complex adaptive systems like business and investing. Mauboussin argues that success in environments defined by complexity and uncertainty requires moving beyond first-level thinking. He explains how recognizing biases, challenging mental models, applying the “outside view,” and distinguishing skill from luck can strengthen judgment. By using structured tools—such as checklists, decision journals, and premortems—and focusing on the quality of the decision process, leaders can reduce costly errors and make more consistently sound decisions.

A practical framework for making better decisions under uncertainty. Duke lays out a clear six-step process and turns the book into a workbook, giving you tools to evaluate outcomes, assign probabilities, and improve your decision quality.